January 2025: DeepSeek disrupts AI cost assumptions
January 2025 Signal Report
Published: February 01, 2025 Period: January 1-31, 2025
Executive Summary
DeepSeek disrupts AI cost assumptions. 9 major events shaped the month.
Key Signals This Month
Economic Indicators
| Signal | Value | MoM Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 4.33% | 0.00 | → |
| Unemployment | 4.1% | +0.0 | → |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.9% | +0.1 | ↑ |
The Federal Reserve maintained rates at 4.33%. Unemployment held steady at 4.1%.
Market Performance
| Index | Close | MoM Change | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,040 | +3.1% | +5.0% |
| NASDAQ | 19,630 | +3.7% | +6.0% |
| VIX | 16.50 | +1.5 | Moderate |
Markets rallied 3.1% during January.
Technology Signals
AI adoption continued across enterprise sectors.
What Happened
December jobs: 256K added, strong beat
2025-01-03 — Key economic event that impacted unemployment.
December CPI: 2.9% YoY
2025-01-10 — Key economic event that impacted cpi.
Markets digest strong economic data
2025-01-15 — Key market event that impacted sp500.
Trump inauguration
2025-01-20 — Key politics event that impacted vix.
DeepSeek R1 announcement gains attention
2025-01-20 — Key ai event that impacted ai_search_interest.
What It Means
The combination of DeepSeek disrupts AI cost assumptions suggests continued volatility in technology spending and infrastructure decisions.
What to Watch Next Month
- Federal Reserve policy signals
- AI infrastructure spending trends
- Cybersecurity incident rates
Methodology
Sources: FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), Yahoo Finance, Google Trends, CISA KEV Data as of: 2026-02-06 Full methodology: /methodology/signals/
This report uses historical data that existed on the dates covered. All events and data points are verifiable.