January 2025: DeepSeek disrupts AI cost assumptions

Published: January 31, 2025
Period: January 2025
Type: Monthly Report

January 2025 Signal Report

Published: February 01, 2025 Period: January 1-31, 2025


Executive Summary

DeepSeek disrupts AI cost assumptions. 9 major events shaped the month.


Key Signals This Month

Economic Indicators

SignalValueMoM ChangeTrend
Fed Funds Rate4.33%0.00
Unemployment4.1%+0.0
CPI (YoY)2.9%+0.1

The Federal Reserve maintained rates at 4.33%. Unemployment held steady at 4.1%.

Market Performance

IndexCloseMoM ChangeYTD
S&P 5006,040+3.1%+5.0%
NASDAQ19,630+3.7%+6.0%
VIX16.50+1.5Moderate

Markets rallied 3.1% during January.

Technology Signals

AI adoption continued across enterprise sectors.


What Happened

December jobs: 256K added, strong beat

2025-01-03 — Key economic event that impacted unemployment.

December CPI: 2.9% YoY

2025-01-10 — Key economic event that impacted cpi.

Markets digest strong economic data

2025-01-15 — Key market event that impacted sp500.

Trump inauguration

2025-01-20 — Key politics event that impacted vix.

DeepSeek R1 announcement gains attention

2025-01-20 — Key ai event that impacted ai_search_interest.


What It Means

The combination of DeepSeek disrupts AI cost assumptions suggests continued volatility in technology spending and infrastructure decisions.


What to Watch Next Month

  • Federal Reserve policy signals
  • AI infrastructure spending trends
  • Cybersecurity incident rates

Methodology

Sources: FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), Yahoo Finance, Google Trends, CISA KEV Data as of: 2026-02-06 Full methodology: /methodology/signals/


This report uses historical data that existed on the dates covered. All events and data points are verifiable.