December 2024: Year-end rally, Fed signals slower pace
December 2024 Signal Report
Published: January 01, 2025 Period: December 1-31, 2024
Executive Summary
Year-end rally, Fed signals slower pace. 5 major events shaped the month.
Key Signals This Month
Economic Indicators
| Signal | Value | MoM Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 4.33% | 0.00 | → |
| Unemployment | 4.2% | +0.0 | → |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.9% | +0.1 | ↑ |
The Federal Reserve maintained rates at 4.33%. Unemployment held steady at 4.2%.
Market Performance
| Index | Close | MoM Change | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 5,881 | +3.1% | +5.0% |
| NASDAQ | 19,113 | +3.7% | +6.0% |
| VIX | 16.50 | +1.5 | Moderate |
Markets rallied 3.1% during December.
Technology Signals
AI adoption continued across enterprise sectors.
What Happened
November jobs: 227K added
2024-12-06 — Key economic event that impacted unemployment.
Google announces Gemini 2.0
2024-12-11 — Key ai event that impacted ai_search_interest.
FOMC cuts rates 25bp to 4.25-4.50%, signals fewer 2025 cuts
2024-12-18 — Key fed event that impacted fed_funds_rate.
Hawkish Fed causes selloff, Dow drops 1,100
2024-12-19 — Key market event that impacted sp500, vix.
S&P 500 ends year at 5,881, up 23.3%
2024-12-31 — Key market event that impacted sp500.
What It Means
The combination of Year-end rally, Fed signals slower pace suggests continued volatility in technology spending and infrastructure decisions.
What to Watch Next Month
- Federal Reserve policy signals
- AI infrastructure spending trends
- Cybersecurity incident rates
Methodology
Sources: FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), Yahoo Finance, Google Trends, CISA KEV Data as of: 2026-02-06 Full methodology: /methodology/signals/
This report uses historical data that existed on the dates covered. All events and data points are verifiable.