Methodology
Complete transparency on how we collect, verify, and interpret data.
The Rule
Every report references real data that existed on that date. No fabrication, no anachronisms, no estimates.
Data Sources
All data comes from authoritative public sources with verifiable historical archives:
| Source | Data Type | History Depth | Update Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| FRED | Economic indicators | Decades | Daily/Monthly |
| SEC EDGAR | Corporate filings | 1996+ | Daily |
| CISA KEV | Vulnerabilities | Nov 2021+ | Daily |
| Yahoo Finance | Market data | Decades | Daily |
| Google Trends | Search interest | 2004+ | Weekly |
| BLS | Labor statistics | Decades | Monthly |
Data Collection Process
1. Direct API Access
We pull data directly from source APIs—never from aggregators or third-party platforms. This ensures data integrity and allows us to verify timestamps.
2. Historical Verification
Every backdated report (Feb 2024 - present) uses data that existed on the report date. We verify this by:
- Checking FRED release dates for economic indicators
- Cross-referencing market data with multiple sources
- Using Wayback Machine to verify news events and announcements
- Matching dates with official SEC filings
3. No Interpolation
If data doesn't exist for a specific date, we don't estimate it. We either:
- Use the most recent available data point (clearly labeled)
- Skip that signal for that period
- Note the data gap explicitly
Analysis Framework
Signal Identification
We track 15+ core signals across five categories:
- Economic: Fed policy, employment, inflation
- Market: Indices, volatility, sector performance
- Technology: Adoption indicators, search trends
- Security: Vulnerability disclosures, incidents
- Regulatory: Policy changes, compliance requirements
Pattern Recognition
We identify patterns by:
- Tracking signal movement (direction, magnitude, acceleration)
- Correlating across categories (e.g., Fed policy + market volatility)
- Comparing to historical precedents
- Noting divergences from established trends
Action Recommendations
Every insight includes actionable recommendations for:
- Operators: Tactical moves for immediate implementation
- Risk Leaders: Strategic considerations for planning
- Executives: High-level implications for decision-making
Accuracy Tracking
We maintain a public log of predictions and their outcomes:
- Accuracy Log - Tracking prediction performance
- Corrections - Errors and how we fixed them
Limitations
We're transparent about what this methodology can and cannot do:
What We Can Show
- What changed in verifiable data sources
- How current conditions compare to historical patterns
- What operators are searching for and talking about
What We Can't Predict
- Future events or data points
- Causation from correlation alone
- Private company data or non-public information
Questions?
This methodology is a living document. If you have questions about specific data points, sources, or analysis techniques, contact us.